- 原文 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-01855-w
How many PhDs does the world need? Doctoral graduates vastly outnumber jobs in academia
PhD programmes need to better prepare students for careers outside universities, researchers warn.
PhD programmes need to better prepare students for careers outside universities, researchers warn.
By Diana Kwon
The number of doctoral graduates globally has been growing steadily over the past few decades.
And in countries such as China and India, those numbers are exploding.
Conventionally, the doctorate was a stepping stone to a lifelong career in academia.
But today, the number of PhD graduates vastly exceeds the number of job openings at universities and research institutions.
Researchers say that many universities are not preparing graduates for a career outside academia.
“We need to make doctoral education more meaningful, more sustainable and better aligned with the diverse societal and labour-market needs,”
says Cláudia Sarrico, the Secretary of State for Higher Education in Portugal,
who previously worked at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris.
The PhD explosion
Among the 38 countries belonging to the OECD, the number of new doctorate holders almost doubled between 1998 and 20171,
and has continued to increase in the years since. (Although several countries, including Australia and Brazil,
have seen a dip in PhD enrolments over the past few years, driven in part by high living costs and low stipends.)
In China, the number of doctoral students has doubled — from around 300,000 in 2013 to more than 600,000 students
enrolled in PhD programmes in 2023. “The numbers are massive, and they keep growing,” says Hugo Horta,
who researches higher-education policy and practice at the University of Hong Kong.
There are several factors driving this growth, Horta explains, such as the increasing number of people with
bachelor’s and master’s degrees, and the expectation among many in the country that an investment in
higher education will provide better economic and social prospects.
But the number of jobs in academia has not kept pace with the growth in PhD holders, says Horta. People coming into
these doctoral programmes are, for the most part, training to become academics, so many future graduates are going
to face fierce competition for any position, he says.
Great expectations
In countries such as the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom, non-academic jobs are increasingly becoming
the norm for people with PhDs. A 2023 study2 of more than 4,500 PhD graduates in the United Kingdom found that over
two-thirds of doctoral graduates were employed outside academia.
Such employment can mean graduates taking jobs that aren’t research based or that are outside their area of expertise.
In South Africa, out of more than 6,000 PhD graduates who completed a 2020 survey, 18% said that they had had trouble
finding jobs related to their expertise. “Even though they do find jobs, it’s not necessarily linked to their PhDs,
and it’s not always the jobs that they expected or that they wanted,” says Milandré van Lill, a researcher at
Stellenbosch University in South Africa and a co-author of the study. “From my perspective, we have reached saturation
point in terms of PhD graduates.” Some graduates who find jobs outside of academia feel overqualified and undervalued, says van Lill.
That isn’t the case everywhere. The 2023 study found that job satisfaction among PhD graduates was generally high,
with more than 90% saying they were happy with their career2. Those in science- and technology-related
fields were more likely to find research-related roles — which are linked to higher levels of job satisfaction — than
were those in the social sciences, arts and humanities.
上文是《自然》杂志是一篇新闻稿，主要内容就是当下，全球的博士已经过剩了，看到这个新闻，首先并不觉得有什么奇怪的，狼多肉少。
硬是说现在博士过剩， 在国内，也没有那么的绝对，因为许多大专、普通本科、211，985都有本科学历或是硕士学历的在校教职工存在。只是取得了博士学位以后，你的收入、社会 地位没有达到理想的预期。甚至在国内会更加的额外工作会增加。这个观点只是基于高校这一条道路方面的，还有一方面的就是科研机构。从上面的英文中可以看出 对于高校或科研机构，对博士的需求量是在减少的，全文鼓励更多是将博士的培养计划向产业界看齐。
就目前的情况来看，在大专任教，在职读博，有以下的阻碍：
- 上级领导的阻拦，认为对单位的贡献没有，不同意你去；
- 校级的阻拦，本质是一样的，认为没有贡献。
在三线城市小地方，不是看单项能力，而是看关系，看你在单位呆的时长的。
关于学阀
以下是Chat-GPT返回的解释，关于学阀
学阀：原意为“学术上的军阀”，通常指少数掌握资源和人事权力的学术权威人物或团体，依靠关系网和控制力垄断学术、职位和话语权。
在县域、高职院校、地方高校等小范围内，资源（编制、项目、职称、晋升等）高度有限而集中的。拥有资源配置权的少数人（如学院院长、科研处负责人）
容易形成“权力洼地”。
关于在学阀林立的小地方生存的问题
你提出的这个问题非常现实——“作为新人，如何在地方利益集团或学阀化严重的学术/单位环境中生存和发展？”
说白了就是：不是凭能力说话的地方，新人怎么办？
我会从现实策略 + 心态建设 + 出路选择三方面给你实用建议。
✅ 一、现实环境下的生存策略
1. 认清现实，别太理想化
先接受一个事实： 在某些单位，“努力”≠“成果”，“才能”≠“地位”。有时，关系、背景、人情主导一切。
🔑 认知清醒 ≠ 放弃追求，而是避免被击溃。
2. 快速辨别生态结构：谁是圈层核心？谁是中立派？
你不需要一开始就“融入圈子”，但要观察：
- 谁有实权，谁是象征牌子？
- 谁比较公道？谁容易帮忙？
- 谁和谁是一个利益共同体？
→ 建立最小的生存网络，你不一定要当圈内人，但要知道谁说了算，谁值得避，谁值得靠近。
3. 做人要“软”、做事要“硬”
- “做人软”：不锋芒毕露，不在公开场合批评体制、不盲目表达不满；
- “做事硬”：科研/业务/项目能力要硬，踏实交付，保持自己底线。
📌 “软是表面的人情顺滑，硬是实在的工作交付。”
4. 抓住“小成果”快速建立存在感
在资源少、晋升慢的地方，不要一开始就盯着“大论文、大项目”，而是：
- 做好平台需要的“急事、难事”
- 积累“可见”的贡献（比如公众号写作、项目执行、学生管理）
💡 关键是让别人知道你“有用”、“靠谱”，不容易被边缘化”。
🧠 二、心态建设：别在情绪里打转
1. 不把“学阀”看成人生敌人
他们是环境产物，不是你奋斗的目标；你不需要“打倒他们”，你要的是建立自己的生存缝隙。
2. 把“现实”当成磨刀石
如果你能在关系主导的地方生存下来，将来在更规范的体系中反而更有韧性。
🛣 三、出路选择：局内搏生存，局外找机会
✅ 方案 A：局内破局（如果你打算长期留下）
- 慢慢积累自己的人脉、位置、影响力；
- 等自己有资格参与资源分配时，尝试推动更合理的机制（比如项目开放、人才推荐机制等）。
✅ 方案 B：局内打基础，局外找出口（推荐多数人）
- 你可以把这个单位当成“跳板”，比如积累一定成果后申请更大的平台、博士后、访学、出国等；
- 不断提高自己的“硬通货”：论文、项目、技术、语言、资格认证等。
📌 很多“局外人”不是被踢出局的，而是自己长出翅膀飞出去的。
✅ 最后，送你一句现实主义但不犬儒的话：
不是每个地方都讲规则，但你可以讲方法；不是每个圈子欢迎你，但你可以造通道。
你不需要一开始就赢得整个体制，你只需要找到自己的“立足点”和“下一个跳板”。